Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2022) Turkey’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, with GDP rising by 1.2% q/q, as the boost to net trade from the lira’s collapse late last year more than offset the blow to household spending... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds Despite the backdrop of inflation at 70% and the lira falling by falling by 10% against the dollar this month, Turkey’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 14.00% today. So long as President... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Risk of tighter agricultural export restrictions growing The recent tightening of export restrictions has been limiting the supply of staple agricultural commodities available to global markets and pushing up prices. In light of the ban on wheat exports... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on... 23rd May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary tightening, ruble strength, Bulgaria support Officials in Hungary sought this week to reassure investors that they will tackle inflation and mounting macro imbalances. Tighter policy is needed, which underpins our below-consensus growth... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental growth steps up CEE economies and property markets started the year on a solid footing. Strong quarterly increases in office and industrial rents supported CEE all-property values in Q1, though yield compression... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2022) The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
