Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)

Turkish activity data for September show that industrial production has come under more pressure while retail sales have continued their remarkable resilience in the face of high inflation. On balance...

11th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that...

9th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about...

9th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland

The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to...

8th November 2022 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome

The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is...

4th November 2022 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary’s external vulnerabilities in the spotlight

The surge in energy prices this year has led to a sharp widening in Hungary’s current account deficit and increased its dependence on foreign capital inflows. While the central bank seems to have put...

3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Inflation in Turkey rose to 85.5% y/y in October due to a broad-based strengthening of price pressures. Even so, the central bank will remain under pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy...

3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

There were broad-based falls in Russian industrial production and retail sales in September. The economy may have narrowly avoided another q/q contraction in GDP in Q3 as a whole, but there’s clearly...

2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s recovery entering a more challenging phase

Israel’s economy has been one of the fastest growing globally since the pandemic but there are a number of headwinds that will weigh on activity over the coming quarters. We expect a period of below...

2nd November 2022 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices

Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the...

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE

Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited...

28th October 2022 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns

Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those...

28th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22)

28th October 2022 · 2 mins read