Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) Turkey’s activity figures for April suggest that the economy has held up well since last year’s currency crisis, but robust activity has added to inflation pressures and contributed to the widening of... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a 150bp interest rate cut to 9.50% today as its focus continued to shift away from inflation risks towards supporting the economy. We think further reductions... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest EM central bank meetings After months of aggressive interest rate hikes, the end of tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America is creeping closer. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates are likely... 10th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The sharp fall in Russian inflation in May to 17.1% y/y suggests that inflation may have already peaked and price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months. This will give the central... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt and current account risks are building The effects of the war in Ukraine and strong dollar are causing sovereign debt risks to build in a handful of frontier markets with weak balance sheets, while public debt dynamics in parts of Emerging... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The April activity data for Russia released today show that the imposition of Western sanctions has caused a sharp fall in oil and gas production, a plunge in motor vehicles output and resulted in a... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost The EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be painful for Russia, but it won't be a disaster for as long as commodity prices remain high and Russia can export... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Manufacturing PMIs for May showed that weaker external demand weighed on export orders in Emerging Europe, and that spillovers from the war in Ukraine hit output. There were some signs of improvement... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM sovereign bond yields will resume their rise While the yields of emerging market local-currency and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long. US Payrolls Drop-In (3 rd... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
