Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Nov.) November’s activity data for Poland were much better than expected and provide further evidence of the economy’s relative resilience to the drags from high inflation and interest rates. Even so, we... 21st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s EU fund deal, further dovish tilt at the CNB? The EU’s approval of Hungary’s COVID-19 recovery plan this week is a welcome development for Hungary’s economy and financial markets, but it won’t immediately transform the near-term outlook. 16th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 22) 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: shrinking CA surplus to erode sanctions resilience A widening of Russia’s budget deficit next year to 2.5% of GDP will increase pressure on the government to keep a firm grip on non-military spending. But it should be able to finance the shortfall... 14th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail better placed as yields rise Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The large increases in both industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in October provide clear signs that activity is holding up well despite the various domestic and external headwinds. But we... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Russian inflation fell further last month, to 12.0% y/y, and the breakdown provided further signs that demand remains very weak. But this won’t offset the central bank’s concerns about pro-inflation... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fending off another crisis, weak activity data The decision by Hungary’s government to abandon its cap on petrol and diesel prices this week adds to what has already been a sharp withdrawal of government support in recent months. Hungary’s economy... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surveys improve, Turkey’s FX reserves rebound The batch of survey data for November released this week improved across the region, but the data are still very weak and suggest that recessions lie in store in most countries. Elsewhere, the rebound... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
