Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Hungary falling into a crisis? Hungary’s economy is now under substantial pressure. The forint has slumped and interest rates have been hiked aggressively. The only way through this is to accept the pain of a weak currency and... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak job prospects limit Warsaw office rental growth As recession fears grow in Europe, we think that weak employment growth, home-working and strong completions will weigh on office rents in Warsaw. This means rental prospects will provide little... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel joins the 50bp rate hike club The Bank of Israel stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 1.25%, as it dropped its commitment to “gradual” interest rate hikes. This suggests that similar moves may... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Where could we be wrong on agricultural prices? We expect that the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back gradually over this year and next, but remain historically high. However, the volatility of prices in recent months and the... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Property yields to move higher Weaker economic activity and higher interest rates as a consequence of the war in Ukraine will weigh on property performance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Shifts in investor sentiment and a... 30th June 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived if the conflict remains... 30th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited... 29th June 2022 · 3 mins read
