Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises start to weigh on values Higher interest rates and a weaker economic and property outlook contributed to a rise in all-property yields in Q2. While office and industrial rents still made solid gains, this increase in yields... 25th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the economy to stagnate... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022) GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking... 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2022) Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Russia’s month-on-month deflation deepened in July as consumer prices fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m (in y/y terms, the headline rate eased to 15.1%). The disinflationary impact of the strong... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
