Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Capital values fall in most of CEE Property yield rises stepped up in Q3, causing all-property capital values to fall on a quarterly basis in the CEE markets except for Bucharest. This was despite solid office and industrial rental... 23rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q4 and we think it was probably at the start of recession. We expect that evidence of a deeper downturn... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI slows the pace of tightening as economy softens The Bank of Israel slowed down the pace of tightening today with a 50bp rate hike, to 3.25%, as it emphasised the tightening delivered so far and the early signs that economic activity is slowing. We... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Missile hits Poland, Hungary close to EU funds deal? The missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday and the subsequent reaction in financial markets serve as clear reminders of the close proximity of Central and Eastern European countries to the war in... 18th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2022) Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2022) The slowdown in GDP growth in Israel in Q3, to 2.1% q/q annualised, was in line with expectations as private consumption contracted and net trade exerted a drag. We think Israel’s economy will hold up... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s current account risks continue to mount Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sovereigns tap dollar debt, dovish CEE central banks Governments in Turkey and Poland made a splash this week as they announced rare dollar bond issues. Turkey appears to be taking advantage of a period of low credit spreads while the decision in Poland... 11th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkish activity data for September show that industrial production has come under more pressure while retail sales have continued their remarkable resilience in the face of high inflation. On balance... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
