Global Markets Update Rate cuts may not be a big boost for EM local-currency bonds We think an upcoming shift in emerging market monetary policy towards rate cuts will provide long-dated local-currency government bonds there with a bit of a tailwind. But gains may be limited in the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s government spending spree looks unsustainable The Polish government’s ambitious plans to raise defence and social spending are unlikely to be achieved without pushing up the public debt-to-GDP ratio later this decade. Imminent risks to the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Apr.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation picked up slightly to 2.5% y/y in May and we think it will rise above the central bank’s 4% target in the coming months. Against a backdrop of large upside inflation risks and the... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy, CEE rate cuts on the horizon Optimism about a shift towards orthodox economic policymaking was at the heart of developments in Turkey this week amid the appointments of a new cabinet and central bank governor and a sharp fall in... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s U-turn: action will speak louder than words Optimism about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Turkey has taken hold following the appointment of Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet this weekend. Recent developments look encouraging... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased. Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policy credibility in Turkey, bleak CEE GDP data The latest developments in Turkey – including the expected appointment of former finance minister Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet – provide encouraging signs that President Erdogan will moderate his... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: just how likely is a sovereign debt default? The re-election of President Erdogan has raised concerns about a possible sovereign default. We think this risk looks low for now, but it would become a bigger threat in the coming years if the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yields set to rise further In contrast to the deceleration across the rest of Europe, the rise in CEE yields in Q1 was bigger than in Q4, driven predominantly by the industrial sector. As the yield gap with the euro-zone is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
