Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation and fiscal risks simmering

We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters...

17th September 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3

After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3.

2nd September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q2 2024)

The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central...

2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

29th August 2024 · 1 min read