Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025) Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-in: The Russia-Ukraine war – The macro and market implications of an end to fighting 1738767600 Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he’d stop the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, and nearly three years after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, an end to fightin
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing... 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s threat to Putin, CBRT easing, CEE growth Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with... 24th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response Trump leaves door open for Saudi to flood the market The news from Davos that President Trump will “ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to bring down the cost of oil” is certainly in keeping with his desire for lower gasoline prices and his clear intention to use... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT), to 47.50%, was accompanied by cautious language in the statement. But given signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, we think... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
