Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Sanctions, war and Russia's economy: what next? Russia’s economy has adapted to Western sanctions better than had been expected so far, but maintaining macroeconomic stability is now becoming more challenging and depends in large part on the... 13th July 2023 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. A... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: rates on hold, but one more hike likely The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, but its communications acknowledged the risk of having to hike rates again in the coming months if inflation data warrant it. We... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble’s depreciation, Turkey’s adjustment in swing The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia's trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: labour market conditions likely to remain tight Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have remained tight over the past year despite the weakness in economic activity and we think this will remain the case as recoveries gather pace... 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fallout from Russia's rebellion, lira's sharp depreciation The aborted uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia's military last weekend has prompted a forceful response by President Putin as he seeks to reassert his authority. There's much less certainty... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Central banks shifting into easing mode EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in... 29th June 2023 · 30 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
