Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is political risk rising? From military uprisings to election upsets 1694095200 Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability.
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s policy shift: promising start, but a lot more to do Turkey’s policy shift has ticked a lot of the right boxes so far and the central bank’s large rate hike this month will go a long way to rebuilding confidence among investors. But there are still... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug. Flash Est.) The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2023) The bumper Turkish Q2 GDP growth figure of 3.5% q/q, taken together with more timely figures for Q3 confirms that demand continues to run hot, despite the recent policy U-turn. This will keep... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest activity data for Russia for July suggest that retail sales maintained solid momentum while industry has come off the boil in recent months. We think that the economy as a whole will record... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and suggest that the region may be on the road to recovery. What’s more, firms’... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 14.00%, and we think that this rate will be cut by another 100bp... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're... 25th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank’s much larger-than-expected 750bp interest rate hike, to 25.00%, at today’s meeting will go a long way towards reassuring investors that the shift back to policy orthodoxy is... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s macro pressures, external conditions tighten Macroeconomic stability risks started to crystallise in Russia this week as the ruble slumped and the central bank intervened with an emergency rate hike. Policymakers are considering further measures... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The slowdown in rent growth in the first half of this year is likely to persist... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
