Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structural weaknesses weigh on Warsaw office rents After a strong 2022, we expect Warsaw offices to face a more difficult time ahead. Falling employment and hybrid working practices will limit any revival in demand after 2023 and leave rents... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update The Turkish lira can’t defy gravity forever Although the Turkish lira is at its weakest ever level against the US dollar, it would have fallen far further by now were it not for intervention by policymakers. We anticipate that the currency will... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Feb.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for February showed that the impact of the earthquakes on the economy was larger than we and most others had anticipated. But we think this will... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: nearing the end of the tightening cycle Israel’s central bank raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 4.50%, as expected today and its communications sounded slightly less hawkish than at its previous meeting. Inflation pressures are... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Milder downturn, slower recovery Emerging Europe has seen less steep falls in values than elsewhere so far, but will not be immune in 2023. Higher interest rates and economic weakness mean these markets will have a challenging year... 31st March 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s political crisis, another Bulgarian election Israel's political crisis that flared up earlier this week has since calmed down after PM Netanyahu paused the government's controversial judicial reforms. While tensions may flare up again and Israel... 31st March 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
