Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2023) GDP growth remained fairly solid in Israel in Q1 (2.5% q/q annualised) as it came in slightly above expectations thanks to an unexpected surge in business investment. We think growth will come in... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2023) Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak on the whole, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn now appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan ahead, but the economy may pay the price Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday was close, but Erdogan performed better than recent polls had suggested and he now has the edge ahead of a second round run-off on 28th May. Hopes of an... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Parliamentary and Presidential Elections (May) 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation continued to defy expectations in April as it slumped to a joint three-year low of 2.3% y/y, which will comfort the central bank. But it is a puzzle as to why inflation pressures... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech fiscal tightening, last thoughts before Turkey’s vote The Czech government’s long-awaited fiscal consolidation package unveiled this week will include fiscal tightening to the tune of 1.5% of GDP over 2024/25 and will come at the cost of weaker growth... 12th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s make or break election 1683723600 It's crunch time for Turkey, with parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May offering voters a clear choice between a way back from the unorthodox policies of Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a co
