Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM exports treading water Aggregate EM goods exports have struggled for momentum in recent months and, while there were more positive signs from some of the timely September trade data, we think that exports are likely to... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland's election: opposition on track for victory The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four points on the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict There remain enormous uncertainties about how the war between Israel and Hamas will develop. Israel's economy has proven resilient to conflicts in the past, but its military efforts in Gaza this time... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland's election: a fork in the road The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a key bearing on the direction of economic policy, Poland’s relationship with the EU and support for Ukraine in the coming... 11th October 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Aug.) The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Israel-Gaza conflict – Assessing macro and market risks 1696856400 The attack by Hamas militants on Israel, and the Netanyahu government’s declaration of war, brings renewed turmoil to the Middle East, threatening regional political and economic stability.
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
