Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to leave interest rates on hold again today, at 7.00%, was accompanied by communications which leave the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the coming... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War and Israel’s economy: lessons from history One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial sectors in Turkey and Czechia suffered from weak... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tusk tasked with decarbonising Poland; IEA optimism Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition are making the right noises about phasing out coal usage in Poland, although it remains to be seen how his plans will survive contact with politically powerful... 31st October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, but our regional GDP-weighted measure edged up and is consistent with an... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Turkey’s central bank stuck to the course today as it delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 35%. A few more large hikes are likely to be delivered in the coming months too, which should help... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: FX worries mean rate cuts unlikely for now The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today and, while its communications provided little firm policy guidance, policymakers clearly have one eye on the currency and will... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
