Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Intel investments, Q3 Outlook The central bank meetings in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey that took place this week all produced different outcomes, and policymakers’ communications suggest that interest rates in these countries will... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Poland Activity Data (May) May’s industrial production and retail sales data out of Poland were weaker than expected and are consistent with our forecast that GDP growth remained negative in year-on-year terms in Q2. Over 2023... 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Turning a corner, but a difficult road ahead Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (June) The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and the hawkish nature of the post-meeting communications has prompted us to push back the timing at which we... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June) 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage hike and FX mortgage ruling The Polish government’s proposal this week to increase the national minimum wage by another eye-watering 20% or so in 2024 means that wage and inflation pressures could prove even more sticky than we... 16th June 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong Q1 GDP, but growth slowdown in store EMs experienced a strong first quarter as GDP growth picked up almost across the board, but growth is likely to have slowed in most major economies in Q2 and we think it will remain soft in Q3. We don... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Rate cuts may not be a big boost for EM local-currency bonds We think an upcoming shift in emerging market monetary policy towards rate cuts will provide long-dated local-currency government bonds there with a bit of a tailwind. But gains may be limited in the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s government spending spree looks unsustainable The Polish government’s ambitious plans to raise defence and social spending are unlikely to be achieved without pushing up the public debt-to-GDP ratio later this decade. Imminent risks to the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Apr.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
