Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by consumer spending. We expect this to continue... 22nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q3) The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. We... 16th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Sep.) Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s central bank, Russian ruble, Israel’s offensive Turkey's central bank governor delivered another convincing message at this week's Inflation Report briefing and suggested that further policy tightening will be delivered over the coming months... 3rd November 2023 · 9 mins read
