Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while Russia’s PMI remained near multi-year highs. That... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data centres to remain non-core, despite AI boost Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2023) The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s hiking cycle, Poland’s consumer recovery Turkey's central bank delivered another large 500bp interest rate hike this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. While the local elections in March may be... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3 and a surge in office yields drove the sharpest rise in all-property yields so far this year. However, this was matched by the spike in bond yields in... 23rd November 2023 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 5 key questions on the war and Israel’s public finances The Israeli government’s budget deficit is widening sharply and we think it will breach 5% of GDP next year. Provided the length of the war and the increase in the deficit are short-lived, we don’t... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
