Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sell-off serves as a timely reminder The sell-off in Russian markets over the past week or so has served as a timely reminder that they are the most vulnerable in the region to shifts in global risk appetite. We expect both the ruble and... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: slower pace of easing, but rates to fall further This afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 6% suggests that policymakers will now cut rates at a slower pace than we previously thought... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian elections to spotlight fiscal frailties The very worst fears of a major fiscal blow-out in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections are probably overblown. But given Hungary’s comparatively high level of debt and history of fiscal... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update In no rush to tighten (Jan 10) While policymakers in a number of countries have appeared less dovish of late, three factors should keep interest rates much lower than the markets currently expect. First, the pace of economic... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Croatia’s recovery set to disappoint The worst of the downturn in Croatia may have passed but the economy is still facing an uphill struggle. We expect GDP to grow by just 0.5% this year and by 2.0% in 2011, compared to average annual... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF loan back on track, but growth to disappoint Romania’s parliament last night agreed a series of cuts to this year’s budget that should get its IMF-led loan programme back on track. Nonetheless, the economic recovery is still likely to disappoint... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How competitive is Emerging Europe? While the worst of the recession in Emerging Europe has passed, a fundamental lack of competitiveness will hold back the recovery in much of the region. Poland and Turkey stand out as two notable... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Yield differential between Turkey and Russia to be maintained We expect the differential which has opened up between initial yields in Turkey and Russia to be maintained for the next two years at least. A less severe downturn in the occupier market seems to have... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banking sector is not yet out of the woods This time last year, banking sectors across Emerging Europe were on the brink of collapse. Financial conditions have since stabilised, but how are the region’s banks likely to fair in 2010? In order... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: pick-up in inflation but rate hikes not imminent Today’s inflation data from the Czech Republic should put to bed any lingering fears of a prolonged period of deflation. But with core price pressures set to remain subdued, we still think that... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: is an IMF deal imminent? Recent quotes from leading policymakers suggesting that Turkey is in advanced talks with the IMF should be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly as negotiations have already dragged on for over a... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: NBR recommences its easing cycle This morning’s decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to cut interest rates by 50bps to 7.5% is likely to be the first of a number of cuts over the coming months. While any further political... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Improving investor sentiment may be slow to spread to Emerging Europe (Vol.1 2010) We are more optimistic about the outlook for property returns in non-euro-zone European markets than in our previous forecasts. 4th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2009: a year to forget or a spur for reform? (Dec 09) Twenty years after the fall of Communism, 2009 should have been a year to celebrate in Eastern Europe. Instead, it looks like a year to forget. The region was hit harder than any other by the turmoil... 23rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to retain their dovish bias (Dec 09) The markets are now pricing in relatively aggressive monetary tightening from mid-2010 in most countries in Emerging Europe but we think that three factors will keep rates much lower than investors... 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
