Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Hungary looks likely (Oct 07) The future direction of interest rate movements across Central Europe remains clear cut - rates need to rise in Poland and the Czech Republic and fall in Hungary. But pinning down the likely timing of... 17th October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Self-sustaining growth in Emerging Europe? Although the medium-term growth fundamentals in Emerging Europe look good, the region has yet to reach a point where growth has become self-sustaining. In particular, economic prospects are still... 11th October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth outlook good, bubble fears overdone (Q3 2007) The rally in emerging market equities following September’s Fed rate cut has prompted fears of a nascent bubble in emerging market assets. In Emerging Europe, equity markets in Russia and Turkey have... 1st October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cut looks on the cards (Sep 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where we think that interest rates are likely to be cut by 25bps, subject to ongoing developments in the currency markets. We expect policy makers elsewhere in... 18th September 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q2 GDP growth a mixed bag (Sep 07) Second quarter GDP growth figures released last month proved to be something of a mixed bag. While Russia and Slovakia continue to boom and overheating remains a concern in Latvia and Lithuania... 17th September 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An investor's guide to the Big Four Despite recent market volatility, we are upbeat about the growth prospects in Emerging Europe and its four largest economies – Russia, Turkey, Poland and Romania. Given the right policies, the Big... 21st August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to cut as inflation outlook improves (Aug 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where an updated inflation report should pave the way for a 25bps cut in interest rates. We expect rates to remain on hold elsewhere in the region. 14th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets hit by increased investor risk aversion (Aug 07) The troubles in US credit markets prompted a sell-off in Emerging Europe assets last month. Equity markets initially fell by around 2-7%, currencies by 2-5% and bond spreads rose by around 40bps as... 8th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep to hike as labour market tightens (Jul 07) The focus this month will be on the Czech Republic, where both we and the markets are predicting a 25bps rise in interest rates to 3%. Elsewhere, interest rates are likely to remain on hold in Hungary... 17th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Bank activism could be on the rise (Jul 07) Recent events suggest that Central Banks across Emerging Europe could be becoming more activist. Last month, the National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 25bps to 7.75%, without an accompanying... 11th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak labour data to signal cuts in Hungary (Jun 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a moderation in wage growth towards 6% should be enough to persuade the Monetary Council to cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.75%. Interest rates are... 6th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: the end of a golden era? There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term... 4th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to remain strong; inflation rates to converge (Q2 2007) The growth outlook across Emerging Europe remains good. We expect the region to grow by just over 6% this year, broadly unchanged from the 6.3% expansion achieved last year. Favourable weather... 29th June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Labour market tightening continues (Jun 07) Labour markets across Central Europe and the Baltics are tightening. Last month unemployment hit record lows in the Czech Republic and Latvia and wage growth accelerated to fresh highs in Poland... 21st June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Labour market reform critical to Polish prospects Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around... 23rd May 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Strong Q1 growth underlines positive outlook (May 07) Preliminary estimates of Q1 GDP have so far confirmed our view that the regional growth outlook remains strong. Growth in Russia accelerated to nearly 8% in the last quarter, only marginally slower... 17th May 2007 · 1 min read
