Emerging Europe Economics Update Tough year lies ahead for Bulgaria Despite the recent jump in Bulgaria’s budget deficit, the fiscal risks are comparatively modest. Nonetheless, the economy still faces a tough time ahead, and we expect it to contract again this year. 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech interest rates to stay at record lows into 2011 Today’s surprise interest rate cut in the Czech Republic reflects the ongoing lack of underlying inflation pressures in the economy, and lends further support to our view that rates are likely to... 6th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where now for Romanian interest rates? While the National Bank of Romania appears to be reaching the end of its current easing cycle, with the economic recovery still facing significant headwinds, rate hikes remain a distant proposition. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in Moscow office take-up looks unsustainable The rise in take-up in the Moscow office market in Q1 2010 may be less encouraging than it first seems. Indeed, given the large volume of completions, the improvement in demand was only enough to... 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growing divergence across Emerging European property markets The upbeat message on Poland from yesterday’s Q1 2010 RICS global survey broadly fits with our view that Polish property will be among the best performers in Europe this year. But we are less... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion risks from Greece high and rising (Apr 10) Concerns over the deepening crisis in Greece have weighed on financial markets across the region over the past couple of weeks. While no country has escaped, the contagion risks appear greatest in... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still pushing on a string Today’s 25bp interest rate cut in Russia will do little to spur lending in the real economy. And while policymakers are likely to cut interest rates further in the near-term, there is a good chance... 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the contagion risks from Greece Financial markets across the region have been hit by the latest developments in Greece, but contagion risks are greatest in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates cut again as Fidesz secures two-thirds majority The markets’ favourable reaction to Fidesz’s landslide election victory in Hungary will have been a key factor behind today’s decision by the National Bank (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.25... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Polish retail property market outlook Over the next few years we think that the Polish retail market will outperform most retail markets in both Emerging Europe and the euro-zone. Indeed, the sanguine outlook for retail occupier demand... 23rd April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can Czech policymakers do about the koruna? Attempts by Czech policymakers to stem the recent rise in the koruna may have some effect at the margin, but we doubt that they will do much to fundamentally alter the value of the currency. In the... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas deal boosts prospects in Ukraine, but risks remain Today’s gas deal with Russia is undoubtedly a boost for the Ukrainian economy’s near-term prospects, and keeps it on course for an impressive bounce back this year. But with the new government yet to... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Concerns over a strong ruble unlikely to persist The pace of Russia’s recovery is likely to fade and the ruble is likely to weaken if, as we expect, oil prices fall back over the next year or so. 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey sets out its exit strategy Earlier today the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) outlined its exit strategy from the additional liquidity measures it introduced during the economic crisis. These include plans to switch to a new... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
