Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of a tough first half for equities A sharp sell-off over the past few days has capped a tough first half of the year for the region’s equity markets. The good news is that valuations now look cheap, pointing to a period of... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Developed non-euro-zone markets offer the best risk/reward trade-off (Vol 2 2010) Since the previous Analyst, we have become a little more optimistic about the outlook for commercial property returns in 2010 and 2011. This mainly reflects the fact that, although the economic and... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish recovery leading the way Q1 2010 GDP data from Turkey reaffirm our view that it will be the best performing economy in the region over the next year or so. However, while the pace of recovery should continue to impress in the... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Constitutional Court deals blow to Romania’s fiscal cutbacks This morning’s ruling by the Romanian Constitutional Court against planned cuts to state pensions deals a blow to the government’s austerity programme. While much remains uncertain, it seems unlikely... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The real lessons from the Baltic squeeze If the recent experience of the Baltic States offers any lessons for policymakers in the West it is that aggressive fiscal consolidation at a time when the private sector is also retrenching is likely... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary holds rates once again, but still no hikes in sight There are increasing signs that Hungarian policymakers have reached the end of the monetary easing cycle. But with the economy facing a tough time over the coming years, inflation pressures will be... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10) Marek Belka was recently sworn in as the new President of the National Bank of Poland, and his impressive credentials as a former head of the IMF’s European Department make him a safe pair of hands... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms a small step in the right direction In a speech to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this morning, President Medvedev unveiled a series of market-friendly reforms including changes to the capital gains tax regime and a... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Romania’s property outlook is deteriorating Our recent GDP growth forecast downgrade for Romania has strong implications for its property market outlook. This Update analyses the prospects for rental values and yields this year and next. 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks still facing a tough time Our latest ‘Heat Map’ suggests that pressures on the region’s banks have eased in recent months. Capital levels have been rebuilt and loan to deposit ratios are falling. But familiar vulnerabilities... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone crisis adds to recovery headwinds (Q2 2010) Problems in the euro-zone’s periphery will exacerbate the twin-speed recovery already underway in Emerging Europe. No country would escape unscathed from a full-blown crisis in Western Europe, but... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink of another political crisis? The Romanian government looks set to scrape through tomorrow’s no-confidence vote, thus averting a fresh political crisis and keeping relations with the IMF on track for now. But with the vote... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Franc’s surge a reminder of fragility of East Europe’s banks The recent surge in the Swiss franc has rekindled fears over the health of Eastern Europe’s banking sector. As it happens, the bulk of foreign currency lending in the region has taken place in euros... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary still walking a fiscal tightrope The announcement of a renewed fiscal squeeze in Hungary should help to ease market fears of a ‘Greek style’ crisis in the country. But the policies unveiled earlier today sidestep the underlying need... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey to stay ahead of the pack The bulk of the region is now experiencing a strong rebound in manufacturing, with Slovakia and Turkey at the head of the pack and Romania lagging behind. The key, however, is whether the recovery in... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Eastern European currencies buck a weaker euro? We expect currencies across most of Emerging Europe to weaken further against both the euro and US dollar over the next year or so. The Romanian leu looks likely to be the worst performer, while the... 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
