Europe Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden's problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Off to an horrific start (May 09) Q1 GDP data released over the past month paint a grim picture, with most economies in the region contracting at a record pace. This is unsurprising given the meltdown in the region’s banking sector at... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery remains a distant prospect (May 09) Recent upturns in business and consumer surveys are not yet robust enough to suggest that recovery is imminent, either in developed or emerging non-euro Europe. At best they suggest a slower rate of... 26th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pick-up in inflation to prompt pause in easing cycle (May 09) Inflation data have surprised on the upside in both Poland and Hungary in recent months, due in large part to recent currency weakness. But the bigger picture is that the pick-up in inflation in both... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Retail rents: the euro-zone will outperform emerging Europe Our forecasts envisage that, in general, rental values in the euro-zone will hold up better through the recession in retail than in industrial markets. But the same will not be true in emerging Europe... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will 'car scrapping' drive a recovery in Emerging Europe? ‘Car scrapping’ schemes recently introduced in Western Europe will not be sufficient to drive a recovery further east. While the boost to vehicle exports could be worth up to 1% of GDP in parts of... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack ‘Green shoots’ still thin on the ground (Apr 09) There have been welcome signs that the pace of decline in the region’s economy has started to ease in recent weeks. But we think a recovery remains some way off. First, while consumer and business... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging Markets - another disaster? Both Latin America and Emerging Europe will enter deep recessions this year and, in the absence of a strong global recovery, the pain is likely to extend well into 2010. But whereas Latin America has... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharp interest rate cuts won’t help Turkish commercial property The Central Bank of Turkey’s most recent interest rate cut was the second in a row to surprise markets in its scale (75bps, to 9.75% on 16th April). However, unexpectedly sharp rate cuts do not mean... 20th April 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pace of cuts eases, but rates still set to fall (Apr 09) We have argued for some time that the pace of monetary easing across the region would slow as concerns about financial stability weigh on policymakers’ minds. This seems to have been borne out by... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack From falling markets to falling governments (Mar 09) Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recovered following last month’s sell-off. Currencies are up by 2% and equities have soared. But the recovery owes more to a general pick-up in global... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political tensions point to higher property yields in emerging Europe The collapse of the Czech government on Tuesday night signals that the crisis in emerging Europe has entered a new phase in which political risks will come to the fore. The economic implications may... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Worst recession since post-Communist 'shock therapy' (Q1 2009) Emerging Europe is in turmoil. While financial markets have stabilised somewhat following a sharp sell-off earlier this year, this owes more to a general recovery in global risk appetite than it does... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates still set for record lows despite market turmoil (Mar 09) 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can be done to stop the rot? We think a pan-regional IMF or EU-led bailout fund offers the best way out of the bout of indiscriminate selling that has gripped markets in the Emerging Europe in recent weeks. But for now, at least... 6th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Time to tear up the growth model? While we expect Emerging Europe to suffer a much more severe recession than most other analysts, talk that its growth model is fundamentally broken seems premature. We think that the region could... 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
