Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF reforms to come at a cost In stark contrast to recent developments in Hungary, the fiscal cutbacks announced by the Romanian government have so far helped to keep its IMF-led loan deal alive. But these will come at a cost. We... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Twin-speed recovery taking shape (Jun 10) The recovery in manufacturing across Emerging Europe has for the most part been pretty impressive. With the notable exceptions of Romania and Bulgaria, industrial output is now growing at doubledigit... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow office rents are more likely to stabilise than recover The increase in Moscow office rental values in Q2 is likely to prove a one-off. Although the occupier market has seen a continued improvement over the past few quarters, we think that the main driving... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery back on track... for now Recent data suggest that the economy is back on track for a robust rebound this year. Nonetheless, we suspect that Q2 will mark the high point for annual GDP growth and the pace of recovery is likely... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poland vs. the Czech Republic: where are retail prospects brightest? Recent data releases support our view that the Polish retail property market will outperform that of the Czech Republic over the next few years. Indeed, although we do not expect a blistering recovery... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10) Most countries in the region are on the road to recovery, but the large amount of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that on the whole the outlook for inflation remains extremely... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey stays on course to outperform The Turkish economy is currently undergoing a rapid rebound, and its near-term outlook is the brightest in Emerging Europe. We expect GDP to grow by 6.5% this year, and while the recovery is likely to... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine makes the right move on gas prices Today’s announcement that Ukraine will raise consumer gas prices by as much as 50% from 1st August suggests that the government is serious about the reforms needed to keep the country’s IMF programme... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the CEE property investment market recovery run out of steam? Fading risk appetite among property investors may put the brakes on the current investment market recovery in Emerging Europe. Indeed, while recent falls in property yields have been encouraging, the... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe inflation outlook still extremely benign The economies of Central Europe may be on the road to recovery but the large amounts of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that the outlook for inflation remains extremely benign... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Russia won its battle with inflation? Despite repeated warnings from Russia’s inflation hawks, price pressures in Emerging Europe’s largest economy have continued to abate. We expect disinflationary forces to dominate for a while... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there a silver lining to the euro crisis? Today’s news that Hungarian industrial production grew by a massive 5.4% m/m in May could be another sign that a weaker euro is actually helping manufacturers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal a tentative step in the right direction for Ukraine The financial markets’ luke warm endorsement of Ukraine’s new IMF deal is probably justified. While a new IMF programme is good news in theory, in practice its success will depend on whether or not it... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs remain consistent with further gains in industry The latest manufacturing PMIs from across Emerging Europe suggest that the impressive rebound seen in the industrial sector will continue over the coming months. However, with domestic demand still... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
