Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey stays ahead of the pack After the positive result in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform, Turkish markets received a further piece of good news this morning in the form of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data. In... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish vote should buoy markets, for now The positive result in yesterday’s referendum on reforms to the Turkish constitution is good news for two reasons. First, it shows that support for the present AKP government is still high and, as... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s reform agenda back in the spotlight A number of events over the course of this week have thrown Russia’s reform agenda and the 2012 presidential elections back into the spotlight. It’s still far too early to conclude whether Mr. Putin... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary starts to the pay the price for political posturing The past week has brought further evidence that Hungary’s government is starting to pay the price for its bellicose talk. Bond yields are rising and the forint has failed to rally in recent weeks... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague vs. Warsaw: where are office market prospects brightest? The outlook for office occupier demand looks to be considerably stronger in Warsaw than in Prague. What’s more, completion volumes in Warsaw are finally beginning to slow, suggesting that the vacancy... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe: the fiscal squeeze is here 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rate hawks undone by the data July’s slump in Czech retail sales was not a huge surprise, given that June’s surge was built on flimsy foundations. By contrast, the slowdown in industrial production growth, while exacerbated by... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink again? Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle in Romania does not present any immediate risk to the IMF-led loan programme. But it underlines the tense political situation and the deep divisions in parliament over... 3rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian recovery set to lag behind The Bulgarian economy has been slower to recover than many of its peers in Emerging Europe, and it is unlikely to surge ahead anytime soon. We still think that GDP is on course to contract again this... 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs are a mixed bag The manufacturing PMIs remained consistent with rising industrial production in every country last month. But there were signs of mixed fortunes, and given the slowdown expected in key export markets... 1st September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: solid recovery remains on track Data released yesterday show that the Polish economy grew by a stronger than expected 3.5% y/y in Q2 (up from 3.0% y/y in Q1). We have since raised our GDP forecast to 3% this year, from 2.5%... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is it time to worry about fiscal discipline in Turkey? The Turkish bond market has shrugged off the news that a much vaunted fiscal rule will not now be implemented until 2012 at the earliest. This may be justified since, on its own, a rules based... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Solid Q2 growth, but strong headwinds persist (Aug 10) Most economies in Emerging Europe posted positive quarterly growth in Q2 and some countries, notably Russia and Turkey, remain on track for an impressive rebound this year. However, a number of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian retail yield recovery may prove premature The recent sharp fall in Hungarian prime retail yields is encouraging. However, we suspect that the recovery may have got ahead of itself. In our view, the very weak consumer outlook and the potential... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to the surge in Czech retail sales than meets the eye The surge in Czech retail sales over the past couple of months is not as good as it seems at first sight. In particular, the rapid rise in sales volumes appears to owe much to heavy discounting by... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Underperformance of Czech Republic industrial yields is unlikely to last The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
