Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation heading for record lows Russian inflation fell to its slowest rate in nearly three years in January. With the recovery set to lose steam over the coming quarters, we expect inflation to fall to record lows later this year. 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: interest rates cut again, but recovery to disappoint This morning’s decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to cut interest rates by 50bps to 7% is testament to the more stable political outlook that has emerged since the end of last year. With... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers will look through spike in inflation The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month was due largely to one-off factors and does nothing to change our view that the aggressive interest rate hikes now priced into the market are unlikely to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey relatively upbeat on the Czech Republic Last week’s RICS Global Commercial Property Survey painted a mixed picture of commercial property investment market activity in Emerging Europe. The recovery seemed to be strongest in the Czech... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Growth spurt to fade over 2010 Preliminary GDP data released today suggest that the Russian economy had a strong finish to 2009 and mean that GDP growth could top 6% y/y in the first half of this year. However, with the price of... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Pick-up in inflation to prove temporary (Jan 10) Inflation across much of Emerging Europe has risen in recent months. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to think that these rises will be short-lived. For a start, the pick-ups have been driven... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Downside risks to Czech and Polish retail rents still evident The latest European Commission survey revealed an encouraging, widespread further improvement in industrial confidence in Emerging Europe in January. But data revealed a far more mixed picture for... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland defies the turmoil and expands in 2009 A preliminary estimate of 2009 GDP released this morning suggests that despite the turmoil in the global economy, Poland managed to grow by 1.7% last year. But while the Polish economy should continue... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Turkey’s stock market fare in 2010? The outlook for Turkish stocks is brighter than for other equity markets in Emerging Europe. Absolute gains this year will be limited by waning risk appetite, but relative outperformance seems likely. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sell-off serves as a timely reminder The sell-off in Russian markets over the past week or so has served as a timely reminder that they are the most vulnerable in the region to shifts in global risk appetite. We expect both the ruble and... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: slower pace of easing, but rates to fall further This afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 6% suggests that policymakers will now cut rates at a slower pace than we previously thought... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian elections to spotlight fiscal frailties The very worst fears of a major fiscal blow-out in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections are probably overblown. But given Hungary’s comparatively high level of debt and history of fiscal... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update In no rush to tighten (Jan 10) While policymakers in a number of countries have appeared less dovish of late, three factors should keep interest rates much lower than the markets currently expect. First, the pace of economic... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Croatia’s recovery set to disappoint The worst of the downturn in Croatia may have passed but the economy is still facing an uphill struggle. We expect GDP to grow by just 0.5% this year and by 2.0% in 2011, compared to average annual... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF loan back on track, but growth to disappoint Romania’s parliament last night agreed a series of cuts to this year’s budget that should get its IMF-led loan programme back on track. Nonetheless, the economic recovery is still likely to disappoint... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
