Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: not on the brink, but the risks are still high The collapse of Ukraine’s government earlier today may paradoxically be a positive development, but a lot of progress still needs to be made before access to IMF funding is unfrozen. Accordingly... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surge in exports boosts Q4 GDP Q4 Polish GDP data released this morning confirmed an earlier preliminary estimate that the economy grew by 1.7% in 2009 and by 3.1% y/y in the final quarter of last year. But while Poland should... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q4 GDP data a mixed bag (Feb 10) Q4 GDP data, released over the past month, have painted rather a mixed picture. The good news is that a number of countries, notably Russia and Poland, appear to have grown on a quarterly basis. But... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the Russian recovery built to last? A combination of a massive fiscal stimulus and a boost from the inventory cycle should ensure that the Russian economy grows at annual rates in excess of 6% during the first half of this year. But the... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian debt is safer than Turkish debt Spreads on Russian and Turkish foreign currency bonds relative to US Treasuries have moved in lockstep since October 2009. (See Chart 1.) The prospect that commodity prices (and especially oil prices)... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Lacklustre economies weigh on occupier markets (Feb 10) Rental values in most sectors and locations either fell or were unchanged in Q4. The sharpest declines occurred in the industrial sector. Scandinavia led a recovery in the investment market and... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: NBH to continue with cautious cuts Some commentators think that this afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.75% will mark the end of the current easing cycle. However, while the... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek tragedy to temper EMU expansion Recent events in Greece have fundamentally weakened the economic arguments in favour of a rapid expansion of the euro-zone to include EU member states in the East. Political appetite for euro-area... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates again, but ruble strength could be short-lived This morning’s 25bps cut in Russian interest rates may help to stem some of the upward pressure on the ruble but it is unlikely to do much to spur lending. What’s more, if oil prices fall back this... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10) Although inflation has risen across much of the region in recent months, policymakers remain in no rush to raise interest rates. For a start, the bulk of the pick-up in inflation has been caused by... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account concerns start to build After shrinking markedly from the levels seen in mid-2008, Turkey’s current account deficit has begun to widen once again. While the deficit has not yet reached danger levels, the bigger picture is... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: new MPC but interest rates going nowhere for now As expected, the replacement of Poland’s entire Monetary Policy Council (MPC) which was completed today is unlikely to mark a fundamental shift in the Council’s bias. As a result, we are sticking to... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging Europe: credit and the investment market outlook There are tentative signs that credit conditions are easing in some Emerging European economies. This may raise hopes that commercial property investment markets in the region could rebound this year... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe still mired in recession The flurry of Q4 GDP data released this morning paint a pretty grim picture. Most countries, with the notable exception of Slovakia, appear to have contracted on a quarterly basis and there is little... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing in credit confined to a handful of countries While there are tentative signs that credit conditions are starting to ease in parts of the region, the improvement has so far been confined to those countries with relatively healthy banking sectors... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Yanukovich triumphs but Ukrainian markets set for a rough ride Exit polls suggest that Viktor Yanukovich has defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the race to become Ukraine’s next President. But his margin of victory in yesterday’s run-off was slim and the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
