Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking recovery continues despite familiar risks The good news is that the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. The bad news is that familiar vulnerabilities remain in those countries that were hit hardest during the global crisis... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far will interest rates rise in Poland? After remaining on hold for the past 18 months, it seems all but certain that Polish interest rates will be hiked later this month. But we doubt that this will mark the start of an aggressive... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would EMU break up mean for Emerging Europe? With Portugal seemingly on the cusp of an IMF/EU bailout, we suspect that the euro-zone debt crisis is about to enter a new, more dangerous, phase that ultimately ends in some form of break-up of the... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields in Warsaw to remain lower than in Prague The relative strength of the Polish economy compared to the Czech Republic during the global economic downturn has helped to push commercial property yields in Warsaw below those in Prague. Given our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2011 hold for Russia? With oil prices nearing $100pb, the near-term prospects for the Russian economy are looking up and the immediate challenge for 2011 will be to prevent inflation accelerating. Nonetheless, higher... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian risk factors on the rise The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we worry about Poland's widening external deficit? Poland’s widening current account deficit is not an immediate cause for concern but, with the quality of financing apparently deteriorating and foreign inflows seemingly being used to finance consumer... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will 2011 hold for emerging markets? We expect growth in emerging economies to stay strong in 2011 and, generally speaking, the major challenge facing policymakers will be to ensure that inflation remains contained and that capital... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey takes a bold step to stem speculative inflows Tonight’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 6.5% is a bold step aimed at slowing speculative capital inflows. Ultimately it may have to be... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy to get creative in 2011 For much of Emerging Europe growth concerns continue to outweigh inflation worries. Accordingly, monetary policy will remain accommodative in most countries next year. The exception to this is Turkey... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would WTO accession mean for Russia? Russia’s accession to the WTO is back in the news and, not for the first time in the past decade, it seems that membership talks might now be concluded at some point within the next twelve months. We... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy becoming increasingly unbalanced Annual Turkish GDP growth slowed more sharply than expected in Q3, but the economy appears to have fared better in the fourth quarter and is still set to outperform the region over the coming years... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Does the ruble pose a threat to the Russian retail rental recovery? Retail rental values in Emerging Europe are sensitive to currency fluctuations. Indeed, the weakness of the Romanian leu may help to explain why retail rents in Bucharest have been so weak this year... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
