Emerging Europe Economics Update No quick fix to Hungary's FX debt problem Media reports suggest that the Hungarian government is close to unveiling a draft plan aimed at dealing once and for all with the legacy of the FX-debt boom that brought the country’s banking sector... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian interest rates should be down Today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to keep interest rates on hold at 6.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting underlines how inflation fears have slipped down policymakers’ list of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: where's the oil price boost? The fact that Russian growth slowed in Q1 despite the surge in oil prices suggests that all is not well in Emerging Europe’s largest economy. Growth should accelerate over the second half of the year... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Few surprises as industrial output drives Q1 growth The flurry of Q1 GDP data released today suggests that the recovery in Emerging Europe is progressing, although the pace of growth is a touch disappointing given the recent strong expansion in key... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production growth set to slow further Today’s industrial production data (for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) were weaker than expected, and reflect our concern that the export-led recovery may be starting to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey too harsh on Czech rental growth prospects? This morning’s RICS global survey painted a fairly positive picture of Emerging European commercial property occupier markets, particularly in Poland, Russia and Turkey. But surveyors seem to be... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Does Emerging Europe need the euro? In contrast to the prevailing consensus, we believe that there is compelling evidence to suggest that the preservation of sovereign currencies – as opposed to euro-adoption – offers the best route to... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The best of the industrial bounce is now behind us Today’s release of Polish PMI data for April, together with a similar release from the Czech Republic earlier this week, suggests that the industrial rebound in Central Europe remains in pretty good... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets shrug off concerns in the euro-zone Each successive stage of the euro-zone crisis has had a progressively smaller impact on financial markets in Emerging Europe, to the extent that this month’s bailout of Portugal barely registered on... 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Non-euro-zone markets will outperform in 2011 and 2012 Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
