Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe: the fiscal squeeze is here 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rate hawks undone by the data July’s slump in Czech retail sales was not a huge surprise, given that June’s surge was built on flimsy foundations. By contrast, the slowdown in industrial production growth, while exacerbated by... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink again? Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle in Romania does not present any immediate risk to the IMF-led loan programme. But it underlines the tense political situation and the deep divisions in parliament over... 3rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian recovery set to lag behind The Bulgarian economy has been slower to recover than many of its peers in Emerging Europe, and it is unlikely to surge ahead anytime soon. We still think that GDP is on course to contract again this... 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs are a mixed bag The manufacturing PMIs remained consistent with rising industrial production in every country last month. But there were signs of mixed fortunes, and given the slowdown expected in key export markets... 1st September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: solid recovery remains on track Data released yesterday show that the Polish economy grew by a stronger than expected 3.5% y/y in Q2 (up from 3.0% y/y in Q1). We have since raised our GDP forecast to 3% this year, from 2.5%... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is it time to worry about fiscal discipline in Turkey? The Turkish bond market has shrugged off the news that a much vaunted fiscal rule will not now be implemented until 2012 at the earliest. This may be justified since, on its own, a rules based... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Solid Q2 growth, but strong headwinds persist (Aug 10) Most economies in Emerging Europe posted positive quarterly growth in Q2 and some countries, notably Russia and Turkey, remain on track for an impressive rebound this year. However, a number of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian retail yield recovery may prove premature The recent sharp fall in Hungarian prime retail yields is encouraging. However, we suspect that the recovery may have got ahead of itself. In our view, the very weak consumer outlook and the potential... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to the surge in Czech retail sales than meets the eye The surge in Czech retail sales over the past couple of months is not as good as it seems at first sight. In particular, the rapid rise in sales volumes appears to owe much to heavy discounting by... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Underperformance of Czech Republic industrial yields is unlikely to last The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through any food price spike (Aug 10) Emerging Europe Central Bank Watch 1 Aug. 2010 EMERGING EUROPE CENTRAL BANK WATCH Economies in Emerging Europe are more vulnerable than those in the West to a spike in wheat prices following recent... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First signs of a drought-related slowdown in Russia July’s ‘Economic & Social Indicators Report’, released earlier this afternoon, contains the first signs that this summer’s droughts and associated wildfires have begun to hit activity in some sectors... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a jobless recovery History suggests that the economies of Central Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic; the CE3) have in the past had to grow by between 3.0%-3.5% in order to create jobs. But the region’s... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The recovery gains pace, but is still likely to fade The raft of preliminary Q2 GDP releases from Emerging Europe this morning paint a broadly positive picture. But given the significant headwinds still facing the recovery, this may be as good as it... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: recovering, but a long slog still lies ahead In light of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data from the Baltic States over the past few weeks, we have raised our GDP growth forecasts for this year and next. But with domestic demand set to remain... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
