Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in Q2 and worse is to come Today’s Q2 GDP data show that the pace of recovery across the region was slowing even before the recent turmoil in financial markets. With external demand weakening and domestic demand still subdued... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the market turmoil mean for policy? In the wake of the recent market turmoil, the immediate priority for policymakers is to stabilise the region’s currencies. But if required central banks are more likely to rely on verbal or direct... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Super-strong Swiss franc hits Hungary & Poland The latest surge in the Swiss franc has turned the spotlight once again on Emerging Europe’s foreign currency debt problem. As it happens, only Hungary, Poland and Croatia have significant amounts of... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak Russian GDP data a sign of things to come The fact that Russian GDP growth slowed from 4.1% y/y in Q1 to 3.4% y/y in Q2 is particularly worrying since it suggests that the economy was losing steam even before the recent turmoil in financial... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European slump set to harm Czech growth prospects The tumultuous past week in the financial markets has fuelled concerns about the pace of the global, and especially the European, recovery. The Czech economy will be hit harder than most by a slowdown... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Warsaw office rents? The current, double-digit pace of rental value growth in the Warsaw office market is not sustainable. But despite a large development pipeline, we believe that Poland’s relatively solid economic... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression to halt as the recovery falters Non-euro-zone economies will not be immune from the slowdown now unfolding in the single currency area. A slower pace of economic growth coupled with concerns about potential contagion from the crisis... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s monetary policy experiment gets risky The decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise its overnight borrowing rate and cut its benchmark 7-day repo rate could do more harm than good: the rise in the overnight rate risks attracting... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey MPC meeting to focus on the lira The Central Bank of Turkey has announced that the MPC will hold an (unscheduled) interim meeting tomorrow, which, it seems, is likely to result in fresh measures to prevent a disorderly adjustment in... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Leading indicators suggest that annual growth slowed in pretty much every economy in the region in Q2 of this year. Unfortunately, rather than being just a temporary blip, we think that this is a sign... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production slows to a crawl The latest Manufacturing PMI data suggest that industrial production growth in the region all but ground to a halt in July. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail rental values recover this year? Over recent weeks, the downside risks to our forecasts for a modest recovery in retail rental values in Prague this year have increased. But, if we are right, some of the factors weighing on Czech... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking Inflation is close to peaking in most countries in Emerging Europe. Indeed, it may already have done so in Russia. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian rates should still be down The National Bank of Hungary is in a bind. On the one hand, growth remains pretty sluggish. But on the other, the high level of Swiss franc-denominated household debt limits the scope for, and the... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
