Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falls in Budapest retail yields be extended any further? Given our fairly downbeat view on Hungary’s consumer sector outlook, the continued above-average performance of the Budapest retail investment market is difficult to rationalise. In our view, the weak... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode The turmoil in the euro-zone’s periphery probably tipped the balance in favour of keeping Polish interest rates unchanged this afternoon and thus delaying a first hike until next month or (more likely... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's 2011 Budget: an exercise in smoke and mirrors It looks increasingly likely that the Hungarian government will meet, or even outperform, its targets for reducing the budget deficit over the coming years. But with temporary revenue raising measures... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the region's growth model Emerging Europe’s medium-term growth prospects have been the subject of much discussion this week. Our view is that the ‘quick wins’ from the current growth model have largely been exhausted but that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Disappointing start to Q4 for the Russian economy While there are tentative signs that the agricultural sector is recovering from this summer’s drought, the raft of October activity data released this afternoon suggest that the Russian economy made a... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment market upturn petering out There are clear signs that investment demand for Western European commercial property is beginning to fade. Across the region, transaction volumes have begun to fall, or have levelled off at... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia Q3 GDP dragged down by droughts The sharp drop in Russian GDP growth in Q3 stands in stark contrast to the generally strong batch of data released elsewhere in the region earlier this morning and marks Russia out from the rest of... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP surprises on upside but twin speed recovery still likely The raft of third-quarter GDP data released this morning generally surprised on the upside. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all expanded at a faster pace than expected, while Romania... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: widening imbalances are the risk, not slowing growth Data showing that Turkish industrial production fell in September grabbed a few headlines earlier this week. This is perhaps understandable given that manufacturers have so far led the recovery. But... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gearing up to hike interest rates It is now more likely than not that Polish policymakers will start to raise interest rates later this month. But we doubt that this will signal the beginnings of a sustained tightening cycle. 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we worry about inflation expectations in Poland? There is little evidence to back up claims by some policymakers in Poland that interest rates should be raised in order to contain inflation expectations. In fact, doing so could entail some... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic states struggling to shift growth models The worst of the financial crisis in the Baltic states has clearly passed. But with the region finding it difficult to shift to an export-led growth model, there are legitimate concerns over the... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry makes a good start to Q4 Manufacturing PMIs strengthened across most of the region in October and continue to point to industrial production growth of between 10-15% y/y over the coming months. But manufacturers in the region... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
