Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 growth strong, but recession threat mounting On the face of it, Turkish Q2 GDP data – which surprised on the upside – is positive news. However, it merely confirms our view that the Turkish economy is overheating and it is now more likely than... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production: slump on the horizon July’s Industrial production data, although not as bad as feared, were poor nonetheless and confirmed that growth is weakening across Central and Eastern Europe. What’s more, the disappointing PMIs... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s budget black hole filled only temporarily The Hungarian government yesterday afternoon announced measures to raise an extra HUF 100bn in revenues as lower than expected growth reduced the chances of meeting the budget target. The government... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE markets still outperforming, but outlook is cloudy In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s current account deficit: recession in the making? Turkey’s economy looks increasingly in danger of going from boom to bust. Rapid growth in domestic demand has led to a surge in imports and a widening current account deficit that, in light of recent... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More gloomy news on regional manufacturing August’s PMI surveys brought further evidence – if any were needed – that industry in Central and Eastern Europe is slowing sharply. Given that this has been the main driver of growth over the past... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Minimal threat of office supply shortages in CEE The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland GDP growth remains robust, but for how long? Polish growth in Q2 remained relatively robust but we expect it to slow significantly in 2012 and 2013 to a below-consensus 3% y/y as external headwinds build. Having front-loaded monetary tightening... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth fears back with a bang Growth clouds are gathering over Emerging Europe. Leading indicators, such the manufacturing PMIs, have weakened across the board, growth in key export markets (notably Germany) is cooling and Q2 GDP... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Odds on Turkish recession start to shorten Turkish policymakers left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted that further policy loosening may be on the way. Yet even if additional stimulus is ultimately justified by a renewed downturn in... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in Q2 and worse is to come Today’s Q2 GDP data show that the pace of recovery across the region was slowing even before the recent turmoil in financial markets. With external demand weakening and domestic demand still subdued... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
