Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish economy now more vulnerable to a euro-zone slump With elections due on Sunday, the campaign of the governing Civic Platform party has understandably focussed on its economic credentials. After all, Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing stalling September’s PMI surveys confirmed that manufacturing growth across the region has stalled. With export-led industry being the main (and in some cases only) driver of growth, this adds further weight... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowing GDP growth unlikely to derail Polish investment market revival Our sub-consensus view that Polish GDP growth will slow to about 2.5%y/y in 2012 might suggest that the recent surge in commercial property investment activity could lose momentum. However, even if... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of President Putin This weekend’s news that current President Medvedev will step aside to allow Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency at next year’s elections has raised hopes that lower political uncertainty will... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The big picture on emerging market currencies The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Fall of the Wall The vast bulk of growth in Emerging Europe since the fall of communism can be explained by the better allocation of resources that has resulted from the transition from central planning to a market... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Hungarian retail yields fallen too far? The recovery in Hungary has disappointed in recent months and economic growth is likely to remain lacklustre in 2012 and 2013. That represents a downside risk for commercial property, but especially... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy gains momentum September’s activity data suggest that Russia is heading for a strong economic performance in the second half of 2011. What’s more, with both the consumer sector and industry picking up, growth looks... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about inflation in Hungary? The outlook for inflation in Hungary is not as bad as recent developments suggest, but the plunging forint may still force the National Bank into a defensive rate hike within the next three months. 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Here comes the slowdown The deepening crisis in the euro-zone reinforces our view that growth in Emerging Europe will slow by more than most expect over the next year. We expect the region’s economy as a whole to expand by... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia prepares for global downturn Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to lower its overnight repo rate and at the same time raise its overnight deposit rate is an attempt to wrest back control over market interest... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey’s commercial property market heading for another downturn? Q2 GDP data from Turkey look pretty encouraging. Yet we think that the economy is on track for a hard landing next year. This alone does not alter our views on the prospects for commercial property... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
