Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey too harsh on Czech rental growth prospects? This morning’s RICS global survey painted a fairly positive picture of Emerging European commercial property occupier markets, particularly in Poland, Russia and Turkey. But surveyors seem to be... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Does Emerging Europe need the euro? In contrast to the prevailing consensus, we believe that there is compelling evidence to suggest that the preservation of sovereign currencies – as opposed to euro-adoption – offers the best route to... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The best of the industrial bounce is now behind us Today’s release of Polish PMI data for April, together with a similar release from the Czech Republic earlier this week, suggests that the industrial rebound in Central Europe remains in pretty good... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets shrug off concerns in the euro-zone Each successive stage of the euro-zone crisis has had a progressively smaller impact on financial markets in Emerging Europe, to the extent that this month’s bailout of Portugal barely registered on... 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Non-euro-zone markets will outperform in 2011 and 2012 Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis: the calm before the storm for CEE markets? We doubt that the bailout of Portugal will draw a line under the problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies and fear instead that it may mark the start of a new, more dangerous phase of the... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Poland stay ahead of the pack? The near-term outlook for the Polish economy remains amongst the strongest in the region, with GDP growth set to remain close to its potential rate of around 4% for the next couple of years. But the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Two speed ahead Romania’s recovery will be two-speed, with industrial output boosted by foreign demand (especially from Germany) while domestic demand will remain sluggish. We expect the central bank to keep rates on... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
