Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: impressive end to 2011, but a slowdown ahead Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth: losing some steam Although today’s preliminary estimate of 2011 GDP growth surprised on the upside, the Polish economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. Poland is better placed than its neighbours to weather... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Falling capital values to dent total returns Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of Turkish easing looks premature Despite the recent rally in the lira and signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is starting to narrow, the reduction in effective interest rates seen over the past few weeks is likely to prove... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An update on Russia’s unrest In a Focus piece last month we outlined three possible ways in which the political situation in Russia might develop. Although it is still too early to say with any certainty how events will play out... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Hungary’s problems undermine other CEE property markets? Fears that the recent sell-off in Hungarian assets might spread to commercial property markets across CEE are probably overdone. But in reality it will be hard to distinguish contagion effects from... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How great are contagion risks from Hungary? The recent sell-off in Hungarian assets has turned the spotlight on other Emerging European assets. Even though any contagion risks are likely to be limited, 2012 promises to be a tough year for the... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
