Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry likely to slow in the second half A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates on ice Adding to dovish comments by monetary policy committee members, the statement following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in Poland points to a prolonged pause in rate changes. The... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Retail sales disappoint Today’s retail sales data for the Czech Republic continue to point to subdued domestic demand and the likelihood of only modest economic growth over the next couple of years. With fiscal consolidation... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing growth slowing, price pressures easing June’s Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the previously impressive recovery in the region’s industrial sector is now losing steam and that price pressures are starting to ease. 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth is unsustainable News that Turkish GDP grew by an above-consensus 11% y/y in Q1 of this year confirms what we already knew – the economy is overheating. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers stick to their guns The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold today and gave no hint that it will resort to more conventional measures to cool an economy that is showing clear signs of overheating. The key... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth still decent but familiar vulnerabilities remain May’s Economic & Social Indicators report suggests that a pick-up in consumer spending and investment is offsetting a slowdown in industrial production, leaving the Russian economy on track to expand... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish inflation - not yet time to worry The surprise acceleration of Polish inflation in May confirm the buoyancy of the economy but reflects mainly the impact of three temporary factors – global food and fuel price inflation and a rise in... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey's post-election policy priorities As the dust settles on last weekend’s parliamentary elections, the immediate priority for policymakers will be to cool an economy that is displaying increasing signs of overheating. This will require... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish economy? Victory in the elections held in Turkey yesterday ensures an unprecedented third term for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But the positive market reaction, including a stockmarket rally and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates: time to pause The statement following today’s Polish interest rate hike was more dovish than in recent months, highlighting the risks to the recovery and the hope that front-loading monetary tightening will support... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
