Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s current account deficit: recession in the making? Turkey’s economy looks increasingly in danger of going from boom to bust. Rapid growth in domestic demand has led to a surge in imports and a widening current account deficit that, in light of recent... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More gloomy news on regional manufacturing August’s PMI surveys brought further evidence – if any were needed – that industry in Central and Eastern Europe is slowing sharply. Given that this has been the main driver of growth over the past... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Minimal threat of office supply shortages in CEE The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland GDP growth remains robust, but for how long? Polish growth in Q2 remained relatively robust but we expect it to slow significantly in 2012 and 2013 to a below-consensus 3% y/y as external headwinds build. Having front-loaded monetary tightening... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth fears back with a bang Growth clouds are gathering over Emerging Europe. Leading indicators, such the manufacturing PMIs, have weakened across the board, growth in key export markets (notably Germany) is cooling and Q2 GDP... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Odds on Turkish recession start to shorten Turkish policymakers left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted that further policy loosening may be on the way. Yet even if additional stimulus is ultimately justified by a renewed downturn in... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in Q2 and worse is to come Today’s Q2 GDP data show that the pace of recovery across the region was slowing even before the recent turmoil in financial markets. With external demand weakening and domestic demand still subdued... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the market turmoil mean for policy? In the wake of the recent market turmoil, the immediate priority for policymakers is to stabilise the region’s currencies. But if required central banks are more likely to rely on verbal or direct... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Super-strong Swiss franc hits Hungary & Poland The latest surge in the Swiss franc has turned the spotlight once again on Emerging Europe’s foreign currency debt problem. As it happens, only Hungary, Poland and Croatia have significant amounts of... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak Russian GDP data a sign of things to come The fact that Russian GDP growth slowed from 4.1% y/y in Q1 to 3.4% y/y in Q2 is particularly worrying since it suggests that the economy was losing steam even before the recent turmoil in financial... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European slump set to harm Czech growth prospects The tumultuous past week in the financial markets has fuelled concerns about the pace of the global, and especially the European, recovery. The Czech economy will be hit harder than most by a slowdown... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
