Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last? The raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks will confirm that, having been on the brink of a crisis towards the end of last year, most economies in Emerging Europe have since... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”? The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Putin 2.0 for real? In his first speech since returning to the Russian presidency, Vladimir Putin underlined the need to shift towards a more liberal economic policy. We have been here before, of course, and we remain... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Balance tips in favour of Polish rates staying on hold It remains a close call, but we think that the weaker run of data over the past couple of weeks has tipped the balance in favour of Polish interest rates being kept on hold at next week’s MPC meeting... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: back into recession After a boom and bust in domestic demand over the last decade, Bulgaria’s economy appears to be shifting towards export-led growth and away from over-reliance on domestic consumption. But the good... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the euro-zone crisis Non-euro-zone European economies will not be immune to a fresh recession in the euro-zone. We expect all economies in the region to undergo a sharp slowdown in growth or worse. Barring perhaps Poland... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates on hold until politics stabilises The National Bank of Romania’s (NBR’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today suggests that the easing cycle is on hold until the political situation (and the leu) stabilises. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing hit by fresh slump in the euro-zone April’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial output in most of Emerging Europe contracted last month – mirroring the recent deterioration in the survey data from Germany. More worryingly, the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s dwindling surpluses: causes and consequences Russia is unlikely to run large current account surpluses for much longer. But while her days as a ‘super saver’ nation look numbered, we are equally sceptical of Russia’s ability to sustain large... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s government falls victim to austerity backlash The fall of Romania’s cabinet earlier today adds to the growing list of European governments to be toppled by a backlash against austerity, reinforcing our below-consensus forecast for growth this... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: growth slowed sharply in Q1 Recent data suggest that the Ukrainian economy slowed sharply at the beginning of the year. With the outlook for the euro-zone still bleak and the Russian economy on course to slow too, we think... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets hit by fresh euro concerns Financial markets across Emerging Europe have been hit by fresh concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis in recent weeks. So far at least, the sell-off in the region’s markets has not been as dramatic... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary edges closer to an IMF/EU deal Signs that the European Commission (EC) is willing to be more lenient in its discussions with Hungary over a new IMF/EU financing programme suggest that an agreement could be reached more quickly than... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
