Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: CBRT returns to orthodoxy Although the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) kept the benchmark repo rate on hold, today’s MPC meeting marked a clear shift in its stance. Policymakers are no longer in easing mood are moving instead... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, but slowdown on the horizon The raft of activity data for September released earlier today allow us to firm up our forecast for Russian growth in the third quarter. The good news is that the economy appears to have expanded at a... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail property remain in vogue? Record levels of commercial property investment in the Czech Republic in Q3 2011 were driven by the retail sector. But retail property in the Czech Republic is starting to look expensive compared to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Financing risks on the rise in Ukraine A hefty external financing requirement is casting a long cloud over the economic outlook for Ukraine. With limited access to private capital, the government will soon have no other option but to turn... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme offers little comfort While Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme (MTP) for 2012-14, unveiled today, contains some movement towards fiscal tightening, we think that it is a case of too little too late. The MTP is based on overly... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the ruble? Russian markets have been hit hard during the recent financial market turmoil: the RTS equity index was down by 18% in September and the ruble lost 10% against the dollar. While the currency and... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe's external financing risks still high The view that Emerging Europe is not as vulnerable to an external financing crisis as in 2008/09 appears misplaced. Although current account deficits have, in most cases, narrowed sharply, total... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish economy now more vulnerable to a euro-zone slump With elections due on Sunday, the campaign of the governing Civic Platform party has understandably focussed on its economic credentials. After all, Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing stalling September’s PMI surveys confirmed that manufacturing growth across the region has stalled. With export-led industry being the main (and in some cases only) driver of growth, this adds further weight... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
