Emerging Europe Economics Update Little good news for industry over the New Year A raft of data released over the past week paints a mixed picture for the Emerging Europe’s industrial sector. But even though production held up relatively well in the last months of 2011, weak... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey poised for a sharp rise in property yields? Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, lessons for Hungary The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut its benchmark interest rate today, as expected. Crucially, stable politics and an IMF backstop have provided the NBR with scope to cut rates in response to the... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens further, adding to recession risk Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The economic consequences of Russia's unrest The eruption of anti-government protests in Russia has come at a time of growing strains in the country’s consumption-led growth model. But while hopes for reform are rising, the paradox facing... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: further tightening on the cards The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) hiked interest rates today, as expected. But with the government at loggerheads with the central bank, talks with the IMF seemingly having broken down and fresh... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: banking squeeze intensifies amidst political unrest The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has cut the amount of funds it provides via its overnight repo auctions to the lowest level in almost two months in an attempt to shore up the ruble against a backdrop... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: the slowdown has started Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro crisis to trigger recessions further east The deepening turmoil in the euro-zone is likely to drag large parts of Emerging Europe into recession over the next year. Financial sector vulnerabilities mean that recession risks are greatest in... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Warsaw office rents vulnerable to a renewed euro-zone recession? The strength of Warsaw’s office occupier market over the past couple of years suggests that the large and increasingly speculative development pipeline is not a risk to the rental outlook. However, a... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
