Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Istanbul retail rents? Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Threat of financial contagion eases, but risks remain The recent news that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds has reduced the risk that banks in Emerging Europe will be hit by financial contagion from the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps into easing mode, but impact likely to be limited Today’s cut in the Turkish overnight lending rate is partly cosmetic and the impact on domestic demand is likely to be limited. We wouldn’t rule out a few more steps to narrow the “interest rate... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Prague retail rents continue to rise? The rise in Prague retail rents seen over the past year or so is unlikely to be sustained over the next 18 months. But even though we think the consumer spending outlook will remain weak, the... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The hidden risk of rising Turkish bank debt Although Turkey’s current account deficit has started to narrow, short-term external debt – particularly in the banking sector – has risen sharply over the past couple of years. As such, Turkey... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update WTO tariff reductions will have little impact on Russian inflation The recent revision of Russia’s tariff system as part of its WTO accession is unlikely to have a marked impact on inflation, which is still on course to breach the Central Bank’s end-year target of 5... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Export boom keeps Turkey out of recession Q2 GDP data showed that while domestic demand is still contracting, a boom in exports has kept the Turkish economy out of recession. Admittedly, it looks like the economy has weakened in Q3, while... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP hit by austerity and falling confidence Final Q2 GDP data confirmed that weak domestic demand was the main drag on growth in Central and South Eastern, coming on the back of fiscal austerity and falling confidence. But with external... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still room for Budapest office yields to underperform We see no reason to expect the wide spread that has emerged between prime office yields in Budapest and those in Prague and Warsaw to narrow anytime soon. Instead, Hungary’s relatively weak economic... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Orban scuppers IMF deal (again) Today’s statement by Hungarian PM Victor Orban that his government will reject the conditions attached to an IMF programme is unlikely to spell the end of negotiations between the two parties, but it... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate cut on the cards for next month Today’s post-MPC press conference gave the clearest sign yet that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is set to start cutting interest rates in order to counter the recent downturn in the economy. We... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the outlook for Russian property returns worsened? Recent signs of an economic slowdown have been in line with our expectations. Thus we feel little need to revise our relatively positive Russian commercial property forecasts. However, the gloomy... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little respite for manufacturing in Central Europe While manufacturing in Emerging Europe does not seem to have collapsed to the same extent as in Western Europe, August’s PMIs remain at levels consistent with a recession in industry in Poland and the... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
