Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why would Russia benefit from lower oil prices? The numerous benefits of high oil prices for the Russian economy have concealed the bigger picture that over the past decade they have also served as a hindrance to much-needed political and economic... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Instability to define Putin’s third term in office The widespread assumption among investors that Vladimir Putin’s decisive victory in yesterday’s presidential election will deliver stability to Russia’s economy and its financial markets seems... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in oil prices is a bigger risk to growth than to inflation The surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a major impact on inflation in Emerging Europe but the impact on growth could be more significant. Ukraine and the Baltic States appear most vulnerable on... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry stagnates February’s PMI data suggest that the slump in Czech and Hungarian manufacturing seen towards the end of last year has bottomed out. But while output is no longer falling, manufacturing in both... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland still the region’s outperformer Polish Q4 GDP data confirmed that the economy survived the slump in euro-zone demand at the end of last year relatively unscathed – unlike the rest of Central Europe. Nonetheless, with less scope for... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates on hold as NBH stays in “wait and see” mode The decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) today to keep interest rates on hold at 7% was widely expected, with a narrow majority of policymakers now seemingly willing to wait and see whether... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets shrug off political risk – but can it last? With just over a week to go to Russia’s presidential election, the markets seem to have shrugged off the possibility of a fresh wave of civil unrest following the poll. Equities are up 20% since the... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth still slowing The raft of Q4 GDP data released over the past month showed that growth slowed pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe. The Czech Republic became the first economy in the region to fall back into a... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish interest rates: little room for manoeuvre The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision today to lower the upper bound of its interest rate “corridor” suggests that it is increasingly confident of achieving a gradual adjustment in the current... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary concedes ground to the EC, but barriers still lie ahead Hungary’s government left it late to reply to the EC’s decision to start infringement proceedings. But the fact that it has done so, coupled with conciliatory comments from PM Orban, has raised hopes... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary bank plan unlikely to trigger revival in bank lending The “collateralised credit facility” unveiled by the National Bank of Hungary today may help to ease the maturity mismatch between banks’ assets and liabilities but it will do nothing to address the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
