Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC eases slightly, but rates to remain high The Turkish MPC shifted slightly towards easing mode at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, with the current account deficit still large and a sharp rise in short-term external debt, we expect monetary... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF revisited With attention fixed on every twist and turn in Hungary’s talks with the IMF, it’s easy to forget why the government first raised the prospect of assistance nine months ago. In short, while the fiscal... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth probably slowed in Q2 Relative to the rest of the region the Russian economy remains in a decent shape, but the first signs of a slowdown are starting to appear. Our estimates suggest that growth eased to around 4.0-4.5% y... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's crisis package underlines dependency on oil revenues The $40bn crisis package that press reports suggest is being prepared by the Russian government should allay fears of a repeat of 2008-09, when the Kremlin was accused of being behind the curve in the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Latvia a model for the euro-zone’s periphery? It is probably too soon to judge whether or not Latvia’s internal devaluation has been a success. But the early signs do not suggest that it provides a model for the euro-zone’s crisis-hit periphery... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-crisis takes centre stage The crisis in the euro-zone continues to cast a long shadow over the outlook for Emerging Europe. Most countries are already feeling the effects of weaker export demand, and the very open economies in... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data show fragility of domestic demand Final Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe show that the slowdown across the region was driven by weaker domestic demand, with the exception of Slovakia. Meanwhile, exports proved... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rental value outlook brightest in Russia and Turkey Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia? Compared to 2008-09, Russia is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy (most notably from the euro-zone). But at the same time, Russia’s economy... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors shun Emerging Europe in the first quarter Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis taking a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s industry May’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is hitting the economies of Emerging Europe. Industry already appears to be in recession in much of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland resilient to euro-crisis but not immune First quarter GDP confirmed what we’ve known for a while: Poland is more resilient than her peers to the crisis in the euro-zone, but equally she is not immune. And with the euro-crisis deepening, a... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
