Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s new fiscal rule is no panacea The draft budget for 2013, 2014 and 2015 submitted last Friday offers some hope to Russia’s ailing public finances by aiming to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to swings in oil prices. Nevertheless... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Poland a “core” property market? One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech stimulus starts, what next? Czech policymakers have finally responded to the deteriorating growth outlook by cutting interest rates to a record low today. But with little scope for more conventional policy stimulus, we think... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
