Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry still stagnating The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that while industrial output in Emerging Europe has not collapsed to the same extent as in the euro-zone, neither is it growing. The authorities will become... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can upward momentum in Moscow office rents reignite? After a strong upturn in 2010 and most of 2011, office rents in Moscow have stabilised. Given that the economy is likely to slow and that the vacancy rate amongst the capital’s existing office stock... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rally in Hungarian markets has weak foundations Signs that Hungary’s government is softening its stance on the precise form of financing assistance it is negotiating with the IMF is clearly good news. But there are still plenty of stumbling blocks... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian President’s referendum survival adds to uncertainty Paradoxically, the apparent survival of Romania’s President in Sunday’s referendum could pave the way for a protracted period of political instability. This is likely to take its toll on the financial... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A disappointing Q2 Deepening problems in the euro-zone continue to take their toll on Emerging Europe. Most of the region’s economies appear to have weakened in Q2. Even the region’s strongest performers, Russia and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial rent outlook is weakest in Hungary and Czech Republic Exports to the troubled, peripheral euro-zone economies account for a relatively high share of GDP in both Hungary and the Czech Republic. And the open nature of both economies also leaves them... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish GDP growth probably slowed to 3% in Q2 The raft of recently released data from Poland suggests that GDP growth may have slowed to around 3.0% y/y in Q2, down from 3.5% y/y in Q1. And we suspect that growth in the second half of the year... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Today’s Q2 economic report by the Russian Ministry of Economy confirmed an earlier forecast that GDP grew by 3.9% y/y in the second quarter, down from 4.9% y/y in Q1. We fear the slowdown may be a... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Drop in Polish savings rate points to consumer slowdown The strength of Polish consumer spending over the past couple of years has only been made possible by a run-down in the household savings rate. But with the savings rate now at a record low and real... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Bank maintains easing stance but risks still high While keeping interest rates on hold today, Turkey’s central bank is maintaining its policy of gradually easing monetary conditions. But given the combination of a still-large current account deficit... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia & WTO: don’t expect a miracle After almost 20 years of negotiations, Russia’s membership in the WTO at last seems imminent. But as the effects of this will be spread over several years, we do not expect a significant impact on the... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More bad news for the Russian economy June’s raft of activity data confirmed that strong growth in the first quarter of the year is likely to be the high watermark for the Russian economy in 2012. We think growth slowed to around 4.0% in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation still subdued in Emerging Europe Although inflation rose across Emerging Europe last month, our estimates suggest that core price pressures remain weak. As a result, above-target headline inflation should present little barrier to... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
