Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s dwindling current account surplus The forecast by the Central Bank of Russia that the economy will run a current account deficit by 2015 is significant insofar as it represents the first official acknowledgment of something we’ve been... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market manufacturers still struggling The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while theeasing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Warsaw's office market facing a period of excess supply? Agency estimates of a huge development pipeline seem to suggest that Warsaw’s office market faces a period of excess supply. After all, economic sentiment in Poland is deteriorating, and occupier... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks step up to the plate Central banks in Emerging Europe are starting to respond to the economic downturn that has spread across the region. Interest rates were cut this month in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, and... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic nears the zero-bound The Czech National Bank cut interest rates to just 0.25% earlier today and suggested that, should further stimulus be necessary, this would probably take the form of intervention in the foreign... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Shifting down the gears We expect emerging market (EM) growth to slow to around 4.5% in 2013, with only a modest pick-up to 5.0% in 2014. This would be some way below average growth of 6.1% seen since 2000. What’s more... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates, Poland set to follow Hungary cut interest rates again today, but a combination of familiar financial vulnerabilities and a failure to make meaningful progress on an IMF deal means that the room for further significant... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Czech National Bank not yet out of options The Czech National Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a fresh record low later this week. But it is quickly running out of room for conventional policy responses to lift the economy out of... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Istanbul retail rents? Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Threat of financial contagion eases, but risks remain The recent news that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds has reduced the risk that banks in Emerging Europe will be hit by financial contagion from the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
