Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging market foreign exchange reserves adequate? Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russian economy makes a poor start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing GDP release, which showed that the economy slowed to just 2.9% y/y in Q3, the raft of activity data for October suggests that the slowdown has continued in Q4. We... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM currencies are cheap and which are expensive? Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF one year on Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the start of Hungary’s negotiations with the IMF. Unfortunately, we are no closer to a deal now than we were then. For the time being, the markets don’t appear... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A grim set of Q3 data Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe make for pretty grim reading. Output contracted on a quarterly basis in three of the five countries that reported figures and the business surveys... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little underlying improvement in Turkey's external deficit The upgrade to Turkey’s credit rating last week came in spite of the fact that there has been little underlying improvement in its sizeable current account deficit. This leaves the economy exposed to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: markets to sanguine on local government debt risk A restructuring of local government debt in Hungary is by no means certain and, even if it did occur, would entail smaller losses for the banking sector than a similar restructuring of private sector... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging market vehicle sales hint at consumer slowdown The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia signals rates to stay on hold The Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rates on hold today and the accompanying statement suggests that any change in rates is unlikely in the very near-term. We still think that... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Returns set to weaken in the year ahead If we are right that the euro-zone economy will continue to weaken, the drag on economic activity in non-euro-zone European economies is likely to intensify. As a result, occupier markets in non-euro... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export improvement so far limited to Asia There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle has much further to run Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% suggests that policymakers are finally starting to acknowledge that the big threat to the economy comes from... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
