Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP growth hit by weak domestic demand The detailed Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe make pretty grim reading. We fear that the slowdown in both domestic demand and exports may be a sign of things to come. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian elections to put leu under spotlight The run-up to Romania’s parliamentary election on Sunday has been surprisingly quiet. But we think the markets may be underestimating the risk of fresh turbulence following the vote. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to fall further than most expect For now, the Polish monetary easing cycle is progressing in 25bp steps, but we think the economy is set to slow further over the coming months which, ultimately, could trigger larger rate cuts by... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial yields in Prague and Budapest have further to rise Monday’s Central & Eastern European (CEE) manufacturing PMI data suggest that recent rises in industrial yields in Prague and Budapest might be one-offs. However, softer external demand from the euro... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stronger export orders boost EM manufacturers A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown to trigger large rate cuts Q3 GDP data confirmed that the Polish economy has slowed sharply and with mounting external and domestic headwinds, we think growth will weaken further to just 1.0% in 2013. Accordingly, we expect... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth slows, markets rally A raft of recently released Q3 GDP data for Emerging Europe paints a pretty gloomy picture. The Czech and Hungarian economies are still stuck in recession, while even the region’s better performers –... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What lies ahead for EM domestic demand? Strong domestic demand has partially offset export weakness in many emerging economies this year, particularly in Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for domestic demand look favourable in emerging Asia... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle on shaky ground The improvement in global risk appetite has provided Hungary’s National Bank with the scope to loosen policy. But persistent financial vulnerabilities mean that, without an IMF deal in place, the Bank... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation slows, strong pick-up unlikely ahead Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed in October. Even if inflation does pick up again in the coming months as a result of past increases in commodity prices, the big picture is that any rise is... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowdown has further to run A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
