Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four points on the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict There remain enormous uncertainties about how the war between Israel and Hamas will develop. Israel's economy has proven resilient to conflicts in the past, but its military efforts in Gaza this time... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland's election: a fork in the road The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a key bearing on the direction of economic policy, Poland’s relationship with the EU and support for Ukraine in the coming... 11th October 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Aug.) The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Israel-Gaza conflict – Assessing macro and market risks 1696856400 The attack by Hamas militants on Israel, and the Netanyahu government’s declaration of war, brings renewed turmoil to the Middle East, threatening regional political and economic stability.
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Poland’s election – A fork in the road 1697119200 Schisms with the EU. Wavering support for Ukraine. Sky-high inflation. The stakes in Poland’s general election on Sunday 15th October couldn’t be higher.
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small (by Turkey’s recent standards) rise in inflation to 61.5% last month, from 58.9% in August, provides the first signs that the inflation spike is close to levelling off. But the central bank... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
