Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine fails to agree on an IMF deal, again The failure of the authorities to agree on a new IMF programme leaves Ukraine extremely exposed if financial market tensions flare up again. Meanwhile, the government has recently unveiled its... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery falters The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's economic rebound failing to save others Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy easing likely to focus on weaker ruble Pressure is mounting on Russian policymakers to act to stimulate the slowing economy. But unlike in 2008-09, there is little room for a large-scale fiscal stimulus. And substantial cuts in interest... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's "Funding for Growth" scheme lacks punch The “Funding for Growth” scheme announced by the National Bank of Hungary is not quite as radical as it could have been. This helps to explain the relatively muted reaction in the financial markets... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing losing steam The latest PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the emerging world stuttered last month. Activity slowed further in emerging Europe and Latin America. The only region where activity accelerated was... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia Q4 GDP data old news, Q1 set to be even worse Detailed Q4 GDP data for Russia, released earlier today, confirmed what we already knew – namely that economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years in the final quarter of last year. More... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing recovery stutters The latest batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe shows that activity slowed across the board last month. Activity remains strongest in Turkey. But the weakness of the Central European... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy turning the corner The slowdown in the Turkish economy in Q4 of last year appears to be the trough, and our GDP tracker suggests that growth has picked up to around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2013. Nonetheless, the... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don't underestimate Ukraine's exposure to Cyprus Most attention has focussed on the impact that the Cypriot bail-out could have on Russian depositors, but the deal may pose much bigger risks for Ukraine, which is already on the brink of a balance of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyprus crisis could exacerbate slowdown in Russia The loss to Russian investors from the levy on Cypriot bank deposits remains uncertain, but a plausible estimate is somewhere around €5bn. This is fairly small in the grand scheme of things and the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish retail rental values set to remain under pressure Over the past year, the Polish retail market has moved from being one of Europe’s top performers for rental value growth, to one of the laggards. In the short term, factors such as falling residential... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in inflation to be limited Emerging market inflation has risen in recent months and is set to continue along this upward path in the near future. Looking further ahead, however, weak core price pressures combined with the fact... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICS summit more about politics than economics At their summit in South Africa today and tomorrow, leaders of the BRICS are expected to announce progress towards setting up a development bank and to outline a plan to pool some of their foreign... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New-look Hungarian MPC resists more aggressive policy easing The fact that Hungary’s new-look MPC did not lower interest rates by more than 25bps today underlines the extent to which policymakers are constrained by the threat of a sell-off in the financial... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
