Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey right about property prospects in Emerging Europe? The message from the latest RICS survey was that property prospects in most parts of Emerging Europe are subdued, a view we broadly share. The exceptions are the Czech Republic, where we think capital... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q3 GDP caused by drop in investment The weaker-than-expected 1.2% y/y increase in Russian GDP in Q3 is likely to reinforce concerns that the slump in Emerging Europe’s largest economy over the past year will be longer-lasting than many... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia still happy to bide its time The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept interest rates on hold today and gave little indication that it is about to loosen policy to support the struggling economy. 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank pulls the trigger on unconventional easing Faced with growing concerns about deflation, the Czech National Bank voted to ease monetary policy further today by intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna. Few details were... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s government accepts weaker growth is here to stay The sharp downgrade to the long-run growth forecasts released by Russia’s Economy Ministry earlier today is the clearest signal yet that Moscow believes that economic weakness over the past year has... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank extends “forward guidance” The Polish National Bank extended its version of “forward guidance” today, stating that interest rates will be left on hold until the second half of next year. We think the existence of significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR Governor signals further easing to come in Romania Having lowered interest rates earlier today, Romania’s National Bank Governor, Mugur Isarescu, gave a strong hint that further cuts are likely in the months ahead. This dovish stance has been... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of improvement in EM manufacturing Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have made a strong start to Q4. Our EM-wide PMI estimate, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with a pick-up in industrial production... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the dip in Prague office rents the start of a softer trend? The dip in Prague office rents in the third quarter was consistent with our existing forecast and is not a cause for alarm. That said, with only a modest upturn in occupier demand likely over the next... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack An uneven recovery Growth in Emerging Europe continues to accelerate, but the recovery remains uneven. Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is leading the way. This is thanks to the recent improvement in key euro... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Little sign of recovery in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was probably unchanged from Q2 in the third quarter. Although there is evidence of a recovery in Emerging Asia, growth in Latin America probably slowed in Q3... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time for greater differentiation in EM growth stories Our view that the major BRIC emerging markets were heading for a period of permanently weaker growth looked bold when we set it out a little over a year ago, but it has now been adopted by the... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
