Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak May's data to fuel stimulus debate Part of the weakness of May’s activity data in Russia can be explained by working day effects. Nonetheless, the bigger picture is that while there is some (albeit tentative) evidence that the slump in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering on EMs Yesterday’s FOMC meeting cemented expectations that the Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year and has weighed on EM financial markets today, but the economic impact of... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's easing cycle probably at an end The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today probably marks the end of the easing cycle. In fact, policymakers have already tightened monetary conditions in recent weeks... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech PM's resignation a reminder of governance concerns The financial markets have shrugged off the resignation of Czech Prime Minister, Petr Necas, this morning. However, the corruption allegations that led to his departure, as well as the recent outbreak... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes that CEE investment had turned a corner are dashed The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political instability a risk to Turkey's otherwise bright property outlook Growing civil unrest is one factor which we have previously highlighted as a risk to the medium-term outlook for Turkish commercial property returns. For now, we are sticking with our central... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s ROM - not working as hoped The Turkish central bank’s much-vaunted “reserve option mechanism” doesn’t appear to have smoothed movements in the currency, as had been hoped. This means that the Bank may have to rely on more... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey Q1 GDP reveals familiar vulnerabilities First quarter GDP growth in Turkey was stronger than expected, driven by an impressive turnaround in domestic demand. But the flipside of domestic demand-led growth is that the current account deficit... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weak Q1 GDP could add to market concerns The protests that have gripped Turkey over the past couple of weeks have come at a time when the country’s economic vulnerabilities appear to be mounting. This week, as well as the ongoing protests... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ignatiev keeps rates on hold in last CBR meeting Sergey Ignatiev ended his tenure as governor of the CBR by leaving key interest rates on hold today but, with inflation on course to fall over the second half of the year and Mr. Ignatiev’s successor... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
