Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: volatility to remain the order of the day The scale of yesterday’s intervention by the Turkish central bank to defend the lira underlines the vulnerabilities that have built in the country’s economy. We are tweaking some of our forecasts, but... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: FX reserves drop to 6-year low The slump in Ukrainian FX reserves to a six-year low serves as a reminder that Ukraine’s fragile external position continues to keep it one step away from a full-blown balance of payments crisis. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Russian property: is the best now behind us? The structural slowdown in Russian economic growth suggests that commercial property rents will enter a lower growth phase. This is a concern given that sustained, decent rates of rental growth are... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, we now expect rates to be kept on hold until 2015. If anything though, the risks to this forecast lie on the downside. Elsewhere, there are concerns... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more rate cuts to come in Romania Today’s cut in Romanian interest rates is likely to be followed by further policy easing over the coming months. However, the scope for aggressive loosening is limited by the country’s high level of... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil unlikely to cause EMs to slow via wealth effects While at first sight it does look like the recent falls in emerging market (EM) equities could cause growth to slow via “wealth effects”, we think there are only limited grounds for concern. 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows to weakest pace since global financial crisis Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM slowdown has continued into the start of Q2. Although all three main regions have reported disappointing growth, there are signs that the downturn in Emerging... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Grounds for cautious optimism The latest activity data from Emerging Europe provide some grounds for cautious optimism. Growth in the highly open Central European economies appears to be picking up, albeit from low rates. And... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian and Polish easing cycles nearing an end Policymakers in Hungary and Poland look set to cut interest rates at least once more, probably next month, but we think easing cycles are nearing an end in both countries. 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: is fiscal policy really impotent? The debate over the role of policy stimulus in reviving Russia’s flagging economy has been given extra impetus over the past week by the release of the IMF’s latest Article IV report, which argues... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack QE tapering to have limited impact on EM growth Concerns about a tapering of the US Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 have caused a sell-off in EM financial markets, but we think the economic impact on EMs from the end of ultra-loose monetary... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
