Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets recovering from June’s sell-off Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their losses from the sell-off last month. Looking ahead, we see some scope for gains in the region’s equities and currencies over the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Hungary really turned the corner? Hungary has been buoyed by a raft of good news over the past few months. Q1 GDP data showed that the economy exited recession, the budget deficit has narrowed to the extent that the European... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling There is little evidence in June’s activity data that Russia’s struggling economy is about to turn the corner. All told, it seems that GDP grew by around 1.5-2.0% y/y in the second quarter – broadly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: QE or not QE? The suggestion by some commentators that the new lending facility unveiled by the Central Bank of Russia last week amounts to a form of quantitative easing seems wide of the mark. All the signs so far... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market growth: the long view We think that the non-BRIC Emerging Markets (EMs) will play a more important role than the BRICs in driving a gradual acceleration of global GDP growth over the next 2-3 years. Within the EM world... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish savings need to rise The fall in the lira and the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month have cast the spotlight back onto Turkey’s persistent current account deficit and dependency on foreign capital inflows. At... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the gap between yields in Prague and Warsaw narrow? Over the past five years, investors’ preference for property in Warsaw above Prague has been mirrored by yields in the Polish capital moving the lower of the two. But now that occupier market... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
