Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in ruble strengthens case for interest rate hike The sharp fall in the ruble over the past week or so reflects a combination of factors, including the drop in oil prices, continued capital flight in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM currency falls partly a result of euro weakness There are good reasons to think that some EM currencies remain exposed to market turbulence as we move towards the first interest rate hike in the US. However, suggestions that the recent falls in EM... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps interest rates on hold, but hikes still on the cards The Russian central bank left interest rates unchanged today, having raised rates by 250bps over the firstsix months of the year. But with inflation set to rise further over the coming months and... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How important is urbanisation for long-run growth? The role of urbanisation in supporting growth in emerging markets is often overplayed. Although urbanisation can play an important role in supporting industrialisation, it doesn’t in itself drive... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market equities stand out from the pack Emerging market equities are on track to outperform both developed and frontier market equities in Q3 for the first quarter in seven. We would not be surprised if emerging market equities continued to... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy slows sharply on weak domestic demand Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data reinforce the point that interest rate hikes earlier in the year are continuing to weigh on domestic demand. The poor figures are likely to result in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Using another country’s currency is a costly option Unilateral adoption of the euro, which is the currency regime of Montenegro and a number of other countries, might seem to be a potential blueprint for other European countries outside the euro-zone... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal prices to fall further as environmental regulations bite The recent sharp falls in imports of coal by China and consumption of coal in the US are just the latest evidence that environmental measures enacted over the last year have begun to reduce demand in... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are European gas supplies to the Ukraine crisis? Today’s announcement that both sides have agreed on a ceasefire should help to ease tensions inUkraine and move the government and rebels towards a sustainable peace deal. Admittedly, we havealready... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for industrial rents in Hungary? Provided that Hungary’s apparent slowdown in the pace of economic growth is short-lived, industrial rental values are more likely to continue to mark time over the next few quarters than to fall. But... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
