Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have... 15th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at the rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves Turkey’s gross international reserves have hit a record high recently which, on the face of it, suggests that the policy U-turn since May has helped to diminish the country’s balance of payments... 14th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the... 8th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk vs. Glapinski heating up, Russia's policy troubles The debate around whether Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski could be brought before the State Tribunal and be removed from his post took twists and turns this week. But at this stage the... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while Russia’s PMI remained near multi-year highs. That... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
