Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel?

Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings...

17th October 2024 · 21 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising

Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What to expect from the BRICS+ summit

The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans

The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs

China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of...

9th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE

Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general...

7th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary...

4th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks

The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials

Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle...

3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read